The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three climatic disturbances that are moving towards the United States although, at the moment, they are unlikely to become tropical storms.
The hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean begins on May 15 and officially ends on November 30 (Although sometimes there are storms before and after, the weather does not know of official calendars).
The critical moment is reached, however, precisely around the September, 10th, according to the records of the last century. That is to say: today.
For this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOOA) predicted an activity slightly above average, with between 10 and 17 tropical storms, between them 5 and 9 hurricanesand of them between 2 and 4 of superior category (with winds of more than 111 miles per hour).
The activity so far has been normal, with seven storms, and among them two hurricanes and one, Dorian, of superior category (I get to have winds of 150 miles per hour).
It may still remain worst to arrive
As we said, there are three disturbances in the Atlantic on the way to the Caribbean Sea and, perhaps, to American territory.
The closest one has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression (the first step before a storm or hurricane) in the next five days. First it will go through the Bahamas (punished hard by Dorian) and Florida, leaving heavy rains from Thursday to Sunday, but once in the Gulf of Mexico it could be strengthened (warm waters feed hurricanes; that is why climate change is causing increasingly powerful and destructive storms).
There is another tropical wave in the middle of the ocean, 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, which approaches the Caribbean but only has a 20% chance of survival. And finally, there is another tropical wave leaving the African coast, also with a 20% chance on your trip to the Caribbean.
Is there any reason to worry?
There are never reasons to worry until there are real reasons to worry, and that is not the case.
But NOOA likes to remember historical lessons to always be alert. One of them, for example, is that year (2004) in which Florida suffered the impact of four hurricanes within just six weeks.
That year a season was predicted with activity above the average, and so it was: 15 storms, nine hurricanes … and four of them impacting in Florida.
Charley It was the first, on August 13, with category four. NOOA remembers it because “a lot of people just paid attention”To the planned center line of the trajectory, instead of the probability cone. The storm changed route at the last minute, and deviated 100 miles from schedule (or, to be more precise, the forecast failed by 100 miles).
September 5 arrived French, with category two, leaving a path of destructive tornadoes in its path. September 16 struck Ivan, with category 3 and a cyclonic storm surge up to 15 feet high that extended 500 miles away from the point where it landed. And on September 26 arrived Jeanne, practically on the same place already devastated by Frances, and causing heavy flooding inland.
Those four names they were removed from the archive of storm nomenclatures, as always when heavy damage is caused.