Italy has a new government. An alliance between the center-left Democratic Party (PD) and the 5-Star Movement (M5S) populists. By splashing the first government of Giuseppe Conte, the leader of the far-right League, Matteo Salvini probably did not expect that.

The task of the new coalition will not be easy but for its opponents, one thing is certain: Salvini has lost. He is isolated and beaten. Here's to 4 years in the opposition. But for Giuseppe Santoliquido, a writer and specialist in Italian politics, it is still too early to say that.

"Too early to say so. Let's go back to the question of why not vote? Because Matteo Salvini speculated that there would be no agreement between the center-left, the Democratic Party, and the populist 5-Star Movement. Because they almost agree on nothing. And because this is the sum of two weaknesses: the politically lacerated M5S has lost half its voters in a few months, from 34% to 17% in the Europeans, and the PD which has been on a hypernegative trend for 3 or 4 years. , where he has lost every election since the European referendum until today. " In the absence of agreement on the contents, lthe alliance is therefore dangerous …

A multi-month calculation

"It could be said that Salvini is going in the opposition and therefore it will give him less visibility, but it could also mean that these two parties that disagree will not be able to hold together for long and make a budget law. which will be very hard, from 20 to 50 billion euros, something Matteo Salvini did not want to do. He sent the hot potato to his two already weakened opponents. In my opinion, he said: "It will not last In the long run, in the opposition, I will be able to type as I know how to do well on both parties. In the next 6 to 7 months, we will return to the elections, and there, I would probably have an absolute majority, alone. or in coalition with the far-right, Fratelli d'Italia '. This is a calculation that can lead. "

Polls give the League 40% or more. If he wins a general election for the party of Matteo Santini, if he has a majority in the House and Senate, he will also have a hand in two years to elect the president of the republic and in the run-up to the council superior of the judiciary.

The pressure on the two allies of the future Conte bis government is enormous and for Giuseppe Santoliquido, "both parties can implode". They know that in the event of an election, they would be beaten and lose at least half of their seats. "Members of Parliament and senators attached to their seats are not easily hunted"he notes. They are trying to save what may be,"with the support of the Western Chancery " for whom "it is better to have a budget law made by parties with a minimum of rationality than by populists and to avoid political instability", adds Giuseppe Santoliquido.

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