Up'at the end of the suspense…
there was in the past presidential elections that were thought to be decisive, from the beginning, and who have been : this was the case in 1981. There were others who were surprises total, as of 2002. The one in 2017, it seemed to be played in advance. The left was mired by a five-year term disastrous. We waited for a breakthrough of the national Front and, naturally, a victory of the right. We prepared the same way, willy-nilly, to a remake of a caricature of 2012. French president Nicolas Sarkozy had taken over the UMP and the PS was trying to get in the saddle, in the name of the vote, one of the tenors of the executive, if possible, François Hollande, in default of Manuel Valls. In the two camps, the primaries were held, to give them as much legitimacy as possible to the nominations supposed to be the most effective against Marine Le Pen sure of reaching the second round.
The PS in the basket
We got nothing of that. The right, however, was on the offensive and Alain Juppé caracolait in the lead of all the polls, to the point of seducing a party of the left in search of a lesser evil. However, the voters of the primary lines have preferred a right hand to the right : Sarkozy is too discredited, the unexpected François Fillon has been chosen, the more close to the right wing radicalized that had occupied the street with the Manif for all.
The same massacre took place in the side socialist, slaying all of the favorites, one after the other. François Hollande threw the first sponge in December, crushed by the battery disastrous opinion polls. And, as to the right, the voters of the socialist primaries have rejected the centrism social-liberal Manuel Valls and preferred even, to the vibrionnant the media, and Arnaud Montebourg, the figure more serious and more classic Benoît Hamon.
At the beginning of 2017, the option of moderation has lead in the wing, to the left and to the right. Only in appearance… In November 2016, Emmanuel Macron leaves the wood, accuses the “Beautiful people’s alliance” of the PS and decides to present its candidacy, under the colors of his movement In walk !. Very quickly, he took advantage of the difficulties of the right parliamentary, suffering from the setbacks of legal for its candidate. The centre-right has been rejected, the centre-left has the free way, what makes the rally for François Bayrou.
The PS is trapped. It has on its right a Macron undertaking, who proposes to go until the end of the logic of the quinquennium and to clear rights-of-way partisan. And he has on his left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is claiming a breach, which presents itself outside of political parties and that, unlike his former ally, communist, refuses absolutely the game of the primary, which he considers fatal to the left.
The “primary citizen” of the PS does not have the expected success, but, in a first time, it feeds the idea that the successful candidate, Benoît Hamon, is now the pivot on the left sick. This impression of the moment has not long resisted the principle of reality. The “rebellious” Hamon has been minister Manuel Valls and, in addition, it does not collect its own camp, which makes it very quickly default. Therefore, how could he unite the left ?
Mélenchon, the people, and to the left
that’s when, to his great displeasure, is necessary the phenomenon Mélenchon. When comes the spring, the political situation is even more complex. Marine Le Pen is less all-conquering than suggested in the previous months (breakthrough FN in the regional). The candidate of the right was entangled in its affairs. However, the French policy, even in crisis, has its rules : it is difficult to of the right to the left and vice-versa ; what matters is to know what is the camp the best or the least poorly mobilized. The right down, the left can feel reinvigorated.
Mélenchon takes the opportunity. It is committed very early in the pre-election marathon. He has refused to accept the messy compromises of governing, at the risk of appearing lonely. As Macron, it is away from structures partisan very much discredited. This is his second election campaign. And it was his talent as a speaker, educator, and debater. It knows how to innovate in the forms, use of technology and social networks. He knows how to impose a narrative, to marry the heart and the reason. Officially, it does not bring together the left, but the people. But on the 18th of march, place de la République, around the dynamic theme of the recast republican, he calls in a speech flaming all the landmarks, the symbols, the places, the pantheon of the French left.
In a few weeks, it reverses the current, committed a spectacular recovery, and unprecedented in the polls, overtaking Fillon and now appears as an applicant credible in the second round. Besting the unfortunate Hamon, it is confirmed in a few weeks as the vote on the left, and a left side that can prevail, against all odds, against all the meccanos election.
Will he go until the end ? The voting intentions, more than a place of sympathy, announce a vote effective ? No one, of course, can to this day answer this question. No assumptions can therefore be discarded ; everything is possible. Already, two certainties can, however, be retained, at the heart of a political crisis. Unless an unlikely miracle, this is over the PS mitterrandien d’epinay. A cycle of forty-six years ended, which has allowed socialism to dominate the scene of the French left. This left, in so doing, is ordered to reestablish, from the cellar to the attic.
in addition, whatever happens, the left of left will have marked the presidential election of 2017. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has his style, his manner, his words and a certain way to express its consistency. It has often been said here : you like or don’t like. It remains that, with tenacity and passion, the leader of France insubordinate has achieved what no one had been able to do before : he gave back to the left of his pride and fibre popular. In this, if no one can tell the future, everyone can at least agree that nothing will be as before.