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Economy. The fear of a new Lehman Brothers flat market

At the stock exchange in Karachi, Pakistan, on January 8, 2016.

European shares plunged again on February 11, sealed by banking stocks. In trading rooms, the memory of the iconic bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 resurfaced.

Lehman Brothers. The curse is unleashed. Facing the new tumbling bank shares, some analysts now dare the comparison with the resounding failure of the New York establishment in 2008, which placed the financial world faces a systemic risk.

Thursday [February 11], after a brief lull Wednesday, stock markets fell sharply again. In Switzerland, the index SMI dropped 2.7%, weighed down by financial heavyweights: Credit Suisse fell 8.41%, affecting the lower passage from twenty-five years, to 12.23 francs. The title of UBS has it lost 4.6%.

But Switzerland is not the only one concerned. Hong Kong has floundered 4%, in the night of Wednesday to Thursday. In France, the CAC 40 lost 4%, the German Dax 3%, while in London, the Footsie ended the session at -2.4%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones wandered 2% in the morning. [This Friday, the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell nearly 5%, the Nikkei lost 11.10% over one week]

Societe Generale -. 12, 6%, Deutsche Bank – 6%

the state of the global economy and the low price of oil pollute the atmosphere since the beginning of 2016. the cyclic actions are heavily penalized . Adecco [global leader in temporary], for example, sold 10% in a week, 4% on Thursday.

But in recent days, concerns have mainly focused on the state of portfolio of banks and their exposure to the values ​​of the energy sector, which, too, never cease to lose ground. Societe Generale, whose revenue growth and profitability objectives presented Thursday disappointed, was heavily penalized (-12.6%). Deutsche Bank lost 6% in a single day.

The chicken or the egg? The conditions or scholarships? Which of the two shakes the other? A Natixis strategist warns:

As markets depress asset prices, more economic risks will increase “

Janet Yellen, president of the Fed, speaking Thursday before Congress, “economic and financial developments in the world […] can influence the balance of risks or economic trajectory “. She remained still very cautious on the impact of the current turmoil on monetary policy – the rate increases.

A more nervousness level observed since 2011

Since the beginning of the year, global stock markets – the index MSCI World – have already lost 11%. The asset manager Oddo Meriten quoted by the AFP , claims not to have observed “such signs of nervousness since 2011” . Christopher Dembik, a Saxo Bank economist refers him an awareness of investors shift between their expectations and the reality of numbers

Everyone must face the facts. L ‘2016 will not be that of recovery. Christopher Dembik adds:

panic is self-sustaining and the markets will pay more attention to fundamentals “

the concerns are such that they have pushed the president of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, wanting reassurance about the health of the banking system of the euro area. He repeated the assertions of the bosses of large financial institutions in recent days: “The banks are structurally in a much better position” that a few years. He too was not heard.

Servan Peca


Born in March 1998 from the merger of the New Daily and Journal of Geneva and Gazette de Lausanne , this title right center, popular with executives, is presented as the reference journal of the French-speaking Switzerland and French. The […] Read more

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